A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
